Breeders' Cup Classic, $6 million, 1 1/4 miles, 3-year-olds and up HORSE TRAINER LAST 3 BEYERS ODDS NEXT RACE COMMENT California Chrome Art Sherman 112-113-111 7-5 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Set wicked fractions, drew off, in hand late. No one better right now. Arrogate Bob Baffert 122-99-103 4-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Freakish win in Travers. Will train up to Classic, a la American Pharoah Frosted Kiaran McLaughlin 105-107-123 6-1 BC Dirt Mile Nov. 4 or BC Classic Nov. 5 Think he's best in a one-turn mile, but there's no such BC race. Classic best option. Melatonin David Hofmans 109-104-107 12-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Setbacks have forced him to train straight into race; been working well Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 104-101-105 15-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Smart move to send him to NY for Gold Cup win; deeper waters next Nyquist Doug O'Neill 96-95-96 15-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Hasn't seemed the same since set wicked pace in Preakness Effinex Jimmy Jerkens 103-103-104 20-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Last year's Classic runner-up still effective, perhaps a step slower than year ago Gun Runner Steve Asmussen 102-102-92 20-1 BC Dirt Mile Nov. 4 or BC Classic Nov. 5 Like how he fires every time, but both BC races he could go in are tough Shaman Ghost Jimmy Jerkens 106-94-99 20-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Game win in Woodward over Mubtaahij, Frosted; wants all of 1 1/4m Win the Space George Papaprodromou 102-XX-98 30-1 Breeders' Cup Classic, SA, Nov. 5 Inferior to the top guns but often picks up a check and is ------------------- October 11th 2024 We are now 25 days away from the 2024 Breeders Cup Classic. Below are the expected entries for this year s Classic and how I would rank them currently. I will monitor their published workouts and post at least one more set of rankings before The Classic. Please note the following news bits: Exaggerator qualified for The Classic but was retired on Monday to begin his stud career at WinStar Farm. Nyquist will be entered into the Breeders Cup Classic and then retired after the race to stand stud at Darley America. Dortmund will be entered into the Breeders Cup Las Vegas Dirt Mile. Beholder is expected to be entered into the Breeders Cup Distaff. Shaman Ghost wasn t entered into the Jockey Club Gold Cup race this past Saturday so that he could train up to the Breeders Cup Classic. Todd Pletcher s Destin was thought to be a possible entry in the Classic a few months ago but he hasn t had any published workouts since August 19th. 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders 1) California Chrome* He s now undefeated in six starts in 2024. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.4 million dollars. He is currently ranked #1 in Longines World s Best Racehorse Rankings (SEE). His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 24 Starts 15-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 7 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 113 2024 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic 2) Arrogate There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah s final fraction in last year s Breeders Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2024 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2024 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2024. Unfortunately, it doesn t look like we will get that. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Unbridled s Song Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 2024 Travers Stakes 3) Melatonin* The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. However, he is training very well currently. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Hoppertunity* A surprise winner of the Jockey Gold Cup race. A well earned victory for a horse who has been the bridesmaid way too often. He has finished 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career. Hopps is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. This is why I am ranking him 4th in these rankings. Some how, he always finds a way to finish in the Superfecta. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 22 Starts 6-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-3 Last 3 starts: 4th >4th >1st Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 San Antonio Stakes 5) Frosted* I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joel Rosario Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 6) Effinex He finished 2nd to Hoppertunity in the Jockey Club Gold Cup race. He also finished 2nd to American Pharoah in last year s Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2024 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Note that Effinex has never finished below 4th in a 10 furlong (1 1/4th mile) race. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 26 Starts 9-3-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 8 Starts 3-2-2-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >4th >1st Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Unknown but probably Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.76 (calculated) 2024 Jockey Club Gold Cup Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Oaklawn Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 7) Shaman Ghost After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Ghostzapper Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes 8) Nyquist Probably a better fit for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile but it was announced recently that he will be entered in the Breeders Cup Classic and then retired. He has shown signs of a tired horse, finishing 5th in the Haskell Invitational and 6th and behind lesser competition in his most recent start in the Pennsylvania Derby. If it were my decision, I would rest him and bring him back in January to run at Gulfstream Park in the Pegasus World Cup before retiring him. The 9 furlong distance at Gulfstream would be a better fit for him since he won the Florida Derby there at this distance. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 11 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >6th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 9) Mubtaahij He finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome, 3rd in the Suburban Handicap, 2nd in a photo finish for the win in the Woodward Stakes and then a disappointing 4th place finish in a field of 5 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race in his career. I don t view him as a serious threat to hit the board in The Classic. Next Start: Uncertain but expected to be in the Breeders Cup Classic November 5th. Career: 15 Starts 4-3-1-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 3rd >2nd >4th Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Overall, I haven t heard any other rumblings of potential entries but if I do, I will update these rankings. My next blog will focus in on the very talented 2017 Kentucky Derby class which will serve as a prelude to the Breeders Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile race. Michael California Chrome Awesome Again! Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders Posted on 8 Days Ago by Michael J. Cox bcsantaanita_2024logo-657x1081 ------------------------------------------ Headlines Hoppertunity Rallies in Jockey Club Gold Cup Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's decision to ship Hoppertunity across the country paid dividends. Read More Countdown to the Cup - Oct. 11 California Chrome s daunting shadow, a Distaff for the ages and the presence of Tepin make for a tantalizing 33rd Breeders Cup. Read More Official Breeders' Cup Betting Partner BreedersCup.com users get $5 FREE when joining Exclusive ADW partner TwinSpires! Join Now 2024 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge The BCBC is a highly lucrative and exclusive live bankroll handicapping contest, with a $10,000 buy-in required to participate. Learn More Silks Lawn Chalet The Silks Lawn Chalet offers breathtaking views of every Breeders' Cup World Championship finish. Purchase tickets today. Buy Now Lady Eli Ruthless in Flower Bowl There was no mistaking Lady Eli's will to win the Flower Bowl Stakes Oct. 8 at Belmont Park. Read More Breeders' Cup Classic Betting Preview In order to cash big on the Classic, bettors will be hoping for longer shots to come in on the races preceding it. Read More Tickets On Sale Now The Breeders' Cup World Championships return to Santa Anita on November 4-5, 2024. Purchase your tickets today. Buy Now Miss Temple City Scores in Shadwell Turf Mile Miss Temple City earned a guaranteed berth in the Breeders' Cup Mile in the Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Read More I'm a Chatterbox Dominant in Spinster I'm a Chatterbox cruised to the wire under a hand ride by Florent Geroux to win the Juddmonte Spinster Stakes by seven lengths. Read More Now You Can Play in the BCBC Online For the very first time, you can play in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) online through TwinSpires.com. Register Now 2024 Breeders' Cup Betting Preview The Breeders Cup World Championships at Santa Anita on November 4-5 offers exciting wagering opportunities. Read More Keep Quiet Soars to Dixiana Bourbon Win Gary Barber's Keep Quiet rallied and held off fast-finishing favorite Ticonderoga to win the $250,000 Dixiana Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland. Read More Classic Empire in Breeders' Futurity Score John Oxley's Classic Empire was on his best behavior in the Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland. Read More 2024 Thoroughbred Owner Conference at Santa Anita Learn from the experts. Network and socialize. Attend the Breeders Cup World Championships. Register Now 2024 Breeders' Cup Challenge Watch the Breeders' Cup Challenge series on NBC. See the schedule and get the latest Win and You're In news on the Challenge website. See More ------------------------------------------------ October 4th 2024 One thing that the Awesome Again Stakes (shown below) proved this past Saturday is that California Chrome is sharp and still the horse to beat in Breeders Cup Classic. He won so handily that Victor Espinoza coasted home in the last half furlong. He received a 112 Beyer Speed Figure for the performance which is just one point shy of his career best Beyer Speed Figure of 113. In my Breeders Cup Classic contender rankings below, I have removed Dortmund and Beholder as both appear to be better fits for other Breeders Cup races. For Dortmund, the Dirt Mile since he has lost to California Chrome three consecutive times. For Beholder, the Distaff since she was once again beaten by Stellar Wind. If you aren t beating the Ladies, you re not going to have a serious chance against California Chrome and the new upstart Arrogate. There is one last Win and You re In race for the Breeders Cup Classic coming up this Saturday October 8th at Belmont Park the Jockey Club Gold Cup. It is expected to feature Effinex, Hoppertunity, Mubtaahij and Shaman Ghost. I will preview this race in my next blog on Thursday evening. 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders The Big Three West Coast Triumvirate 1) California Chrome* He s now undefeated in six starts in 2024. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.4 million dollars. He is currently ranked #1 in Longines World s Best Racehorse Rankings (SEE). His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 24 Starts 15-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 7 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 113 2024 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic 2) Arrogate There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah s final fraction in last year s Breeders Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2024 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2024 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2024. Unfortunately, it doesn t look like we will get that. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Unbridled s Song Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 2024 Travers Stakes 3) Melatonin* The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Slim chance of winning, top picks for your Superfecta 4) Frosted* I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: The Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita Park on Saturday November 5th. Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joel Rosario Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 5) Effinex His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2024 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 6th >1st >4th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Oaklawn Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Not a serious threat to win but hit the board potential Hoppertunity He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 0-1-1-3 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 San Antonio Stakes Shaman Ghost After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Ghostzapper Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Mubtaahij This once enigmatic colt has been a fairly consistent in his last three starts. He finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome, 3rd in the Suburban Handicap and finished 2nd in a photo finish for the win in the Woodward Stakes. He appears to be a rail-runner which limits his options down the stretch and he has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 14 Starts 4-3-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts 0-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >2nd Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 99 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Qualified for The Classic but would be longshots Exaggerator* The Slopmeister is dependent on a fast pace and an off track. If it rains in the Breeders Cup Classic, his odds will shorten. Career: 15 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >11th >7th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby Bradester* Rumored to be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He has never raced further than 9 furlongs. Career: 25 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >8th Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: N/A Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: N/A Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 101 Stephen Foster Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 3 Year-Olds who could be big Classic contenders next year American Freedom He will be entered in either Breeders Cup Classic or the Las Vegas Dirt Mile. This year, the Breeders' Cup will again have a total of 13 races spread over two days of racing with $24.5 million in purse money on the line. Friday November 4th will have four races headlined by the Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Distaff, run for several years as the Ladies Classic, worth $2 million. Saturday November 5th will have nine races headlined by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at 1 1/4 miles. For a record ninth time, the races will be held at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Because the facility is large enough, there will be unlimited walk-up standing room admission on both race days, but tickets will be sold in advance as usual. Pre-entries will close on October 26 for all the races, and those horses will be the only ones who can enter. Final entries will be taken and post positions drawn on October 31. The Breeders' Cup will be televised on NBC and NBC Sports, but the exact schedule is not yet known. Based on previous years, the schedule should be as shown below: Friday, November 4, 3:00-6:00pm ET on NBC Sports Saturday, November 5, 1:00-4:00 ET on NBC Sports Saturday, November 5, 4:00-6:00pm ET (Classic only) on NBC Below is the list of races with conditions, purses, and post times for both days. The post times are now set, but not the race order except that the Classic and Distaff will be last on the card. This list is based on last year, but could change when they make the final race order decisions on October 26. Click the race names to get links for info specific to that race including a list of the the top contenders with link to a profile for each horse with lots more info. Career: 6 Starts 3-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >2nd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.52 (calculated) 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 104 2024 Travers Stakes Connect The surprise winner of the Pennsylvania Derby. He makes up for a disappointing 6th place finish in the Travers Stakes. Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >6th >1st Sire: Pulpit Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.84 (calculated) 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ?? 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Pennsylvania Derby Gun Runner A very consistent runner who could star as a 4 year-old. He is rumored to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Career: 10 Starts 5-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 5th >3rd >2nd Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Nyquist Probably a better fit for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at this point since he has faded down the stretch in two 9 furlong races. Career: 11 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >6th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Michael 2024 Awesome Again, FrontRunner and Zenyatta Stakes Previews. Will California Chrome be awesome again? Plus updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings Posted on 14 Days Ago by Michael J. Cox challenge September 27th 2024 Updated October 1st 2024 Three very key Win and You re In races for the Breeders Cup World Championships are coming up this Saturday at Santa Anita Park with the FrontRunner Stakes for the Sentient Jet Juvenile race, the Awesome Again Stakes for the Breeders Cup Classic and the Zenyatta Stakes for the Breeders Cup Distaff. This block of races will be televised live on NBC Sports. Below are the post-positions and morning line odds for all three races. The FrontRunner Stakes 1 1/16th Mile Saturday October 1st Race #6 at Santa Anita Park Post-Time: 5:00 PM CST. Televised by NBC Sports. Post Position/Horse/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. Gormley Espinosa/Shirreffs 8/1 2. Plum Daddy Smith/Callaghan 6/1 3. Secret House Gonzalez/O Neill 20/1 4. Midnight Pleasure Garcia/Ruis 6/1 5. Straight Fire Prat/Desormeaux 9/5 6. Klimt Bejarano/Baffert 6/5 7. Vibe Desormeaux/Desormeaux 20/1 Race analysis: This should be a battle between Klimt and Straight Fire. Straight Fire has the highest average Beyer Speed Figure (90) in his 3 starts of any 2 year-0ld thus far. However, he couldn t stay with Klimt through 7 furlongs in the Del Mar Futurity so I don t expect much will be different in 3+ weeks. But with 2 year-olds, you never know. Plum Daddy has won at 8 furlongs (1 mile). So if I were betting, I would probably place a small 6 over 2,5 over 2,5 Trifecta. But betting on 2 year-olds is risky due to their inconsistency. The Awesome Again Stakes 1 1/8th Mile Saturday October 1st Race #7 at Santa Anita Park Post-Time: 5:30 PM CST. Televised by NBC Sports. Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. California Chrome (125) Espinoza/Sherman -2/5 2. Dortmund (121) Bejarano/Baffert -5/2 3. Hoppertunity (121) Pratt/Baffert 6/1 SCRATCHED 4. Win the Space (121) Stevens/Papaprodromou -20/1 5. Soi Phet (121) Desormeaux/Powell -30/1 6. El Huerfano (121) Pedroza/Miller 50/1 SCRATCHED 7. Hard Aces (124) Gonzalez/Sadler 15/1 Race analysis: Dortmund is training well and I expect him to give California Chrome a better battle than he did in the Pacific Classic. The 9 furlong distance puts Chrome more in his crosshairs. However, this is California Chrome s race to lose and exotics will payout next to nothing like they did in the San Diego Handicap if Chrome wins. So this is a better race to watch and than wager on. Especially with the two scratches. beholder-distaff-2013 The Zenyatta Stakes 1 1/16th Mile Saturday October 1st Race #9 at Santa Anita Park Post-Time: 6:30 PM CST. Televised by NBC Sports. Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. Off the Board (121) Pereira/Mandella 30/1 2. Beholder (125) Stevens/Mandella 3/5 3. Vale Dori (121) Bejarano/Baffert 10/1 4. Tara s Tango (123) Garcia/Hollendorfer 6/1 5. Stellar Wind (125) Espinosa/Sadler 8/5 Race analysis: There are handicappers out there who believe that Beholder is prime to be upset again by Stellar Wind like she was in the Clement L Hirsch Stakes back on July 30th. I tend to believe that Beholder and Gary Stevens were caught off guard by that performance and will bounce back. That being said, you are better off laying down a large 2,5 Boxed Exacta. It seems very safe with this field. If you want to try a Trifecta bet and are looking for a horse to round one out, I like Vale Dori better than Tara s Tango. Vale Dori has raced against the boys in the UAE Derby back in March and finished 4th. 2024 Breeders Cup Classic After a very weird Pennsylvania Derby, with Nyquist and Exaggerator finishing 6th and 7th and behind Wild About Deb and My Man Sam, the 2024 Kentucky Derby class has faded down the stretch to new shooters. The only 3 year-old who is a serious threat to win The Classic this year is Arrogate. And note that 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic only 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. One thing I have been keeping an eye on is Beyer Speed Figures. Below is the Beyer Speed Figures for the last ten runnings of the Breeders Cup Classic. The average Beyer Speed Figure for this 10 year period was 113.4. 2015 American Pharoah (120) 2014 Bayern (113) 2013 Mucho Macho Man (112) 2012 Fort Larned (117) 2011 Drosselmeyer (104) 2010 Blame (111) 2009 Zenyatta (112) 2008 Raven s Pass (110) 2007 Curlin (119) 2006 Invasor (106) I think it is going to take a 112+ Beyer Speed Figure to win this year s Classic. This was the Beyer Speed Figure that Effinex received for his 2nd place finish behind American Pharoah in last year s Breeders Cup Classic (BCC). American Pharoah s highest Beyer Speed Figure entering last year s classic was 109 before he reeled off a 120 to become the first Grand Slam winner of Thoroughbred racing. Bayern s highest was 111 before he produced a career high 113 in the 2014 edition of the BCC. So a 109 Beyer Speed Figure could be a benchmark for 3 year-olds to be viewed as serious threats to win The Classic. The highest Beyer Speed Figure a 3 year-old has produced thus far at more than a mile distance is the 122 by Arrogate. After the Awesome Again Stakes this Saturday, there is only one more Win and You re In race for the Breeders Cup Classic. The Jockey Gold Cup at Belmont Park on October 8th which will be shown on NBC. And now onto the rankings. I have only ranked contenders through the Top 7 and separated them into different categories. I don t think any of the horses outside of my Top 7 are serious threats to win at this point. Perhaps the Awesome Again Stakes and Jockey Gold Cup races may change my mind. 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders The Big Three West Coast Triumvirate 1) California Chrome* He s undefeated in five starts in 2024. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.25 million dollars. His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park this Saturday October 1st. Career: 23 Starts 14-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 6 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 113 2024 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic 2) Arrogate There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah s final fraction in last year s Breeders Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2024 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2024 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2024. Unfortunately, it doesn t look like we will get that. Next Start: Bob Baffert indicated that he is going to train Arrogate up to the Breeders Cup Classic like he did with American Pharoah. Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Unbridled s Song Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 2024 Travers Stakes 3) Melatonin* The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: He will train up to the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Slim chance of winning, top picks for your Superfecta 4) Beholder Her 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic was a commendable performance. However, she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Her trainer Richard Mandella said that he may opt for the Breeders Cup Distaff instead of The Classic. Until this decision is made, Beholder will stay in my rankings. Next Start: The Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita Park this Saturday October 1st. Career: 24 Starts 17-5-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >2nd Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 5) Dortmund Nice performances in the San Diego Handicap (2nd) and Pacific Classic (3rd), but he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. The rumor mill suggests that he might be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile over The Classic. if Beholder and Dortmund are entered in The Classic, Gary Stevens will most likely be Beholder s rider. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park this Saturday October 1st. Career: 12 Starts 8-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.29 (calculated) 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 6) Frosted* I moved Frosted back up 3 spots because I feel that the added rest after his disappointing Woodward performance will do him good. I still think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile but that will be a tough race as well. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). But he got off to a bad start in the Woodward Stakes and that may have cost him a win. Next Start: He will train up to the Breeders Cup World Championships. Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joel Rosario Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 7) Effinex His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, it is very clear that he has slipped a bit, only capturing wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2024 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 6th >1st >4th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Oaklawn Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Not a serious threat to win but hit the board potential Hoppertunity He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita Park this Saturday October 1st. Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-3 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 San Antonio Stakes Shaman Ghost After rewatching his Woodward Stakes performance and also learning that had a post-race cough after his disappointing 5th place finish in the Suburban Handicap, I am once again a believer in this Jimmy Jerkens-trained son of Ghostzapper. When you watch the Woodward Stakes race (shown below), Shaman Ghost ran one helluva race. He displayed a willingness to fight for a win and also an ability to go wide and snake through traffic. This is a very talented 4 year-old with a bright future. His jockey Javier Castellano won the 2004 Breeders Cup Classic on his father. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 12 Starts 6-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Ghostzapper Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.12 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ? 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Mubtaahij This once enigmatic colt has been a fairly consistent in his last three starts. He finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome, 3rd in the Suburban Handicap and finished 2nd in a photo finish for the win in the Woodward Stakes. He appears to be a rail-runner which limits his options down the stretch and he has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 14 Starts 4-3-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts 0-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >2nd Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 99 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes Qualified for The Classic but would be longshots Exaggerator* The Slopmeister is dependent on a fast pace and an off track. If it rains in the Breeders Cup Classic, his odds will shorten. Career: 15 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >11th >7th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby Bradester* Rumored to be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He has never raced further than 9 furlongs. Career: 25 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >8th Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: N/A Best Beyer Speed Figure in 1 1/4 Mile Race: N/A Best Beyer Speed Figure in 2024: 101 Stephen Foster Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 3 Year-Olds who could be big Classic contenders next year American Freedom He will be entered in either Breeders Cup Classic or the Las Vegas Dirt Mile. Career: 6 Starts 3-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >2nd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.52 (calculated) 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 104 2024 Travers Stakes Connect The surprise winner of the Pennsylvania Derby. He makes up for a disappointing 6th place finish in the Travers Stakes. Career: 6 Starts 4-2-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >6th >1st Sire: Pulpit Trainer: Chad Brown Jockey: Javier Castellano (2004 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.84 (calculated) 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: ?? 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Pennsylvania Derby Gun Runner A very consistent runner who could star as a 4 year-old. He is rumored to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. Career: 10 Starts 5-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 5th >3rd >2nd Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Nyquist Probably a better fit for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile at this point since he has faded down the stretch in two 9 furlong races. Career: 11 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >6th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Michael Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders Posted on September 6 by Michael J. Cox bcsantaanita_2024logo-657x1081 September 6th 2024 After the Woodward Stakes this past Saturday, the 2024 Breeders Cup Classic contender picture has come more into focus and now appears to be a two horse battle between California Chrome and Arrogate. However, we still have three key remaining races (shown below) that can spring new challengers. The Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races are in bold font. September 24th Pennsylvania Derby PARX 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 TVG October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC And now onto the rankings. Bradester drops out due to a poor performance (8th place finish) in the Woodward Stakes. He will likely be an entry in the Breeders Cup Las Vegas Dirt Mile. Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders 1) California Chrome* He s undefeated in five starts in 2024. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.25 million dollars. His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita October 1st. Career: 23 Starts 14-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 6 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic 2) Arrogate There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate who set a Travers Stakes and Saratoga track record (1:59.36) for a 1 1/4 mile race. His final quarter mile fraction was 23.84. American Pharoah s final fraction in last year s Breeders Cup Classic was 24.60. Here are the best career final fractions of his competition in mile and a quarter races: California Chrome 24.44 2024 Pacific Classic, Melatonin 24.27 2024 Gold Cup race at Santa Anita, Beholder 24.65 2015 Pacific Classic. Arrogate will get a 4 pound advantage over California Chrome and older horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I just need more than one great performance to elevate him higher over Chrome who is undefeated in 2024. Unfortunately, it doesn t look like we will get that. Next Start: Bob Baffert indicated that he is going to train Arrogate up to the Breeders Cup Classic like he did with American Pharoah. Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Unbridled s Song Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 2024 Travers Stakes 3) Melatonin* The Rodney Dangerfield of thoroughbreds because he gets no respect. At the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter, he is undefeated in two starts and has an average Beyer Speed Figure of 108. The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Beholder Her 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic was a commendable performance. However, she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Her trainer Richard Mandella said that he may opt for the Breeders Cup Distaff instead of The Classic. Until this decision is made, Beholder will stay in my rankings. Next Start: The Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 1st. Career: 24 Starts 17-5-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >2nd Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 5) Dortmund Nice performances in the San Diego Handicap (2nd) and Pacific Classic (3rd), but he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. The rumor mill suggests that he might be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile over The Classic. if Beholder and Dortmund are entered in The Classic, Gary Stevens will most likely be Beholder s rider. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 12 Starts 8-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.29 (calculated) 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 6) Effinex His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has two wins in the Oaklawn and Suburban Handicaps. The Jimmy Jerkens-trained 5 year old can be enigmatic at times and prone to get off to bad starts (see 2024 Stephen Foster Handicap). But then he can bounce back with a nice performance like he had in the Suburban Handicap in July. Jockey Mike Smith seems to get the best out of him but Smith will ride Arrogate in The Classic. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 6th >1st >4th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 7) Hoppertunity He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and you get the feeling that he would probably finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: Unknown but probably the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-3 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 8) Mubtaahij Mubtaahij moves back into my Top 12 because this once enigmatic colt has been a fairly consistent in his last three starts. He finished 2nd in the Dubai World Cup behind California Chrome, 3rd in the Suburban Handicap and finished 2nd in a photo finish for the win in the Woodward Stakes. He appears to be a rail-runner which limits his options down the stretch and he has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race. Next Start: The Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 14 Starts 4-3-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts 0-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >2nd Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 99 2024 Suburban Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 106 2024 Woodward Stakes 9) Frosted* Frosted falls down six spots after his disappointing Woodward performance. Note he is ranked below Mubtaahij who has finished ahead of him in their last two starts. In 2015, Frosted finished ahead of Mubtaahij in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. The Tapit gray colt has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old and has qualified for both the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and the Breeders Cup Classic. I think he would be better suited for the Dirt Mile. He set the track record in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. As he has stretched out past a mile, his Beyer Speed Figures have declined (107 in the Whitney Stakes and 105 in the Woodward Stakes). Next Start: He will train up to the Breeders Cup World Championships. Career: 18 Starts 6-6-2-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joel Rosario Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 10) Nyquist Not a good off-track runner as we witnessed from him in the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational. Nyquist likes dry, fast tracks. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2024 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Next Start: The Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 11) Exaggerator* The Slopmeister. It is now evident after his disappointing finishes in the Belmont and Travers Stakes that Exaggerator is highly dependent on a fast pace and a sloppy track. With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator is in the mix for an Eclipse award for the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2024. But he needs a great dry track performance somewhere down the line. Next Start: He is a rumored entry against Nyquist and Gun Runner in the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 14 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 11th >1st >11th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 12) Gun Runner The Louisiana Derby winner. He has achieved two 3rd finishes in two of the major 1 1/4 miles races for 3 year-olds in the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes. And he received his best Beyer Speed Figure of his career (102) in the Travers Stakes. I like the upward trend and this is Steve Asmussen s best Classic contender after Creator bombed out in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. Some may want to insert American Freedom in this spot but Baffert has Arrogate, Dortmund and Hoppertunity as BCC contenders. Next Start: The Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 9 Starts 5-0-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >3rd Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Michael Arrogate dominates the Travers Stakes with a new track record. Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings Posted on August 30 by Michael J. Cox August 30th 2024 Just when I was lamenting the fact that this year s 3 year-old crop was slow when looking at their Beyer Speed Figures and that none posed a huge threat to win this year s Breeders Cup Classic enter the Bob Baffert-trained late-bloomer Arrogate. He stunned the Saratoga crowd this past Saturday with a performance that spectators are still buzzing about (shown below). He received a 122 Beyer Speed Figure for this incredible effort. The highest Beyer Speed Figure ever earned by a 3 year-old is 124 set by Sunday Silence and Easy Goer in 1989. Arrogate won by 13 1/2 lengths and his winning time of 1:59.36 set a Travers Stakes record and Saratoga track record for a mile and a quarter. The previous record for the Travers at 1 1/4 mile distance was 2 minutes flat. Saratoga is one of the oldest horse racing venues in North America and has never been considered a fast track . Spectacular Bid holds the world record on dirt for a 1 1/4 mile at 1:57.80 but he accomplished this feat as a 4 year-old. For 3 year-olds, a horse named Quack holds the world record on dirt for 1 1/4th mile at 1:58.20 set in the 1972 Hollywood Gold Cup race. Just when I thought California Chrome was a virtual lock to win this year s Breeders Cup Classic, Arrogate muddies up the picture with a freakish performance. And if he draws an inside post, it could toast for Chrome in The Classic. Below is my updated Breeders Cup contender rankings: Updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders 1) California Chrome* He s undefeated in five starts in 2024. The all-time North American leader in race earnings with $13.25 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. His win in the Pacific Classic was arguably the best performance of his career. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita October 1st. Career: 23 Starts 14-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 6 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 4-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic & 2024 Pacific Classic 2) Arrogate He lands at #2 in my rankings despite the fact that he has produced a mile and a quarter time faster than any other active horse on dirt. However, color me a slight bit skeptical until he can replicate anything close to his Travers Stakes performance. As a 3 year-old, Albert the Great ran a 1:59.24 mile and a quarter in the 2000 Jockey Club Gold Cup race and finished 4th in the Breeders Cup Classic that year. Then he finished 3rd in the BCC the following year. There is no doubt that Bob Baffert has a star colt in Arrogate and he will get a 4 pound advantage over Chrome and Frosted in the Breeders Cup Classic. I just need more than one awesome performance to elevate him higher. Unfortunately, it doesn t look like we will get that. Next Start: Bob Baffert indicated that he is going to train Arrogate up to the Breeders Cup Classic like he did with American Pharoah. Although I think Arrogate would benefit from another start before The Classic, it is hard to argue with a strategy of one of the top trainers in the world. Career: 5 Starts 4-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Unbridled s Song Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009 & 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.36 2024 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 122 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 122 2024 Travers Stakes 3) Frosted* With his win in the Whitney Stakes, he received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. Next Start: the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 3rd. Then he will train up to the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 17 Starts 6-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 5th >1st >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joel Rosario Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 4) Melatonin* He is undefeated at a mile and a quarter. He is a legitimate threat to California Chrome. The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 5) Beholder Her 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic was a commendable performance. However, she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Her trainer Richard Mandella said that he may opt for the Breeders Cup Distaff instead of The Classic. Next Start: The Zenyatta Stakes at Santa Anita Park on October 1st. Career: 24 Starts 17-5-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >2nd Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 6) Dortmund Nice performances in the San Diego Handicap (2nd) and Pacific Classic (3rd), but he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. The rumor mill suggests that he might be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile over The Classic. Next Start: Unknown. Career: 12 Starts 8-1-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.29 (calculated) 2024 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 7) Effinex His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a bit of a disappointment. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has two wins in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Suburban Handicap. Next Start: Unknown but I am guessing the Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 6th >1st >4th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 8) Hoppertunity He kept his streak alive of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race in his career with a 4th place finish in the Pacific Classic. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field. Next Start: Unknown but probably the Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 21 Starts 5-6-4-5 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-3 Last 3 starts: 3rd >4th >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 9) Nyquist The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2024 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Next Start: The most recent news is that Nyquist will stay at San Luis Rey Downs through the entire month of August and is being pointed towards the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 10) Exaggerator* The Slopmeister. It is now evident after his disappointing finishes in the Belmont and Travers Stakes that Exaggerator is highly dependent on a fast pace and a sloppy track. With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator is in the mix for an Eclipse award for the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2024. But he needs a great dry track performance somewhere down the line. Next Start: Unknown but he has qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 14 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 11th >1st >11th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 11) Bradester* With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2024. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. It appears that he is being pointed towards the Breeders Cup Mile rather than The Classic. He finished a disappointing 9th in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. Next Start: Woodward Stakes at Saratoga September 3rd. Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 12) Gun Runner The Louisiana Derby winner. He has achieved two 3rd finishes in two of the major 1 1/4 miles races for 3 year-olds in the Kentucky Derby and Travers Stakes. And he received his best Beyer Speed Figure of his career (102) in the Travers Stakes. I like the upward trend and this is Steve Asmussen s best Classic contender after Creator bombed out in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. Some may want to insert American Freedom in this spot but Baffert has Arrogate, Dortmund and Hoppertunity as BCC contenders. Next Start: The Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 9 Starts 5-0-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Start 0-0-2-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >3rd Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 102 2024 Travers Stakes Note: Horses who have qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic have an asterisk next to their name. Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN September 24th Pennsylvania Derby PARX 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 TVG October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC I will have a Woodward Stakes preview by Friday evening September 2nd. Then another updated Breeders Cup Classic contender rankings list by Tuesday evening September 5th. After that, I will focus on the 2 year-old 2017 Kentucky Derby class for which I like Classic Empire, Straight Fire and Klimt thus far. Michael 2024 Pacific Classic Preview California Chrome vs. Beholder vs. Dortmund. Updated Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings Posted on August 17 by Michael J. Cox challenge August 17th 2024 Updated August 20th If you have followed my Breeders Cup Classic contender rankings the past couple of months, a special treat is in store for you this coming Saturday evening. An unexpected Clash of the Titans at Del Mar in the Pacific Classic that matches California Chrome, Dortmund and Beholder. Need I say more? Below is the starting field and it resembles a Breeders Cup Classic Lite. The winner gets an automatic entry into The Classic. Note that 6 of my Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic contenders are entered. And the 3 year-old Desormeaux brothers colt Dalmore is a potential board-hitter after producing a 102 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start at Santa Anita Park in the Affirmed Stakes (shown below). He didn t have the most perfect trip, was forced wide and showed a willingness to battle and fight for a win. Dalmore s sire Colonel John won the Travers Stakes in 2008 and then finished 6th in a 12 horse field in the Breeders Cup Classic that year as a 3 year-0ld. Colonel John finished 5th as a 4 year-old in the Breeders Cup Classic. This is a good horse and his winning time in the 1 1/16th mile Affirmed Stakes was 1:40.84, the same time California Chrome had in the 1 1/16th mile San Diego Handicap. And he will race 6 pounds ligther than Chrome. Dalmore is very unlikely to win in this heavy-hitter older talented field but you should consider him for you exotic bets and you could be seeing a new star for next season. He may be, at this stage, a better dry fast track runner from the Desormeaux brothers stable than Exaggerator. At least at 8 1/2 furlongs. We will see how well he stretches out to 10 furlongs. Here are the post-positions and morning line odds: The Pacific Classic 1 1/4th Mile Saturday August 20th Race #9 at Del Mar Post-Time: 8:15 PM CST. Televised by TVG. Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. California Chrome (124) Espinoza/Sherman 8/5 2. Hoppertunity (124) Pratt/Baffert 8/1 3. War Story (124) Mejas/Greenman 30/1 4. Hard Aces (124) Gonzalez/Sadler 15/1 5. Win the Space (124) Talamo/Papaprodromou 15/1 6. Imperative (124) Arroyo/Baltas 20/1 7. Beholder (119) Stevens/Mandella 7/2 8. Dortmund (124) Bejarano/Baffert 5/2 9. Dalmore (118) Desormeaux/Desormeaux 20-1 My prediction: I think California Chrome wins a hardly contested battle against Dortmund and the surprise new shooter Dalmore. War Story will finish last. Imperative will finish 7th or 8th. What happens in between is guesswork with this good of a field and much of this depends on what type of performance we see from Beholder. If she is healthy and 100% ready to rumble, she can win this race. Hoppertunity s streak of finishing 4th or better in every graded stakes race of his career could be in jeopardy. Hard Aces is a closer and he should get the early speed his style is looking for. Win the Space will have to race with 6 more pounds than he had to in the San Diego Handicap and he never really challenged California Chrome or Dortmund in that race. Ultimately, this is a better sit back and watch race rather than one to bet on. But if you nail a few of the unexpecteds (anybody beats Chrome, the 20-1 Dalmore wins or finishes 2nd) this could be very nice payday. Also, there is a Cross-Country Pick 4 today between Saratoga and Del Mar. Here are my X-Country Pick 4 Picks: Race #1 Fourstardave Handicap (2-6-8 Grand Arch, Ring Weekend, Tourist), Race #2 Alabama Stakes (6 Songbird), Race #3 Del Mar Handicap (4-8 Metaboss-Ashleyluvsugar), Race #4 Pacific Classic (1-7 California Chrome, Beholder). $1 bet would cost $12. If you like a longshot and a potential huge payout, put Dalmore #8 into your Race #4 for $4 more dollars. Breeders Cup Classic As I said in my last blog, I don t think the 2024 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to win The Classic this year. 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic only 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2024 3 year-old class. Beyer Speed Figures One thing to keep an eye on is Beyer Speed Figures. Below is the Beyer Speed Figures for the last ten runnings of the Breeders Cup Classic. The average Beyer Speed Figure for this 10 year period was 113.4. 2015 American Pharoah (120) 2014 Bayern (113) 2013 Mucho Macho Man (112) 2012 Fort Larned (117) 2011 Drosselmeyer (104) 2010 Blame (111) 2009 Zenyatta (112) 2008 Raven s Pass (110) 2007 Curlin (119) 2006 Invasor (106) I think it is going to take a 112+ Beyer Speed Figure to win this year s Classic. This was the Beyer Speed Figure that Effinex received for his 2nd place finish behind American Pharoah in last year s Breeders Cup Classic (BCC). American Pharoah s highest Beyer Speed Figure entering last year s classic was 109 before he reeled off a 120 to become the first Grand Slam winner of Thoroughbred racing. Bayern s highest was 111 before he produced a career high 113 in the 2014 edition of the BCC. So a 109 Beyer Speed Figure could be a benchmark for three year olds to be viewed as serious threats to win The Classic. The highest Beyer Speed Figure a 3 year-old has produced thus far at more than a mile distance is 103 (Exaggerator, Nyquist and Arrogate). Updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders 1) California Chrome He s undefeated in four starts in 2024. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic 2) Frosted* With his win in the Whitney Stakes, he received a 107 Beyer Speed Figure. He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. Next Start: the Woodward Stakes at Saratoga on September 3rd. Then he will train up to the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 17 Starts 6-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 5th >1st >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: William Buick Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 3) Melatonin* The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. He was originally pegged to start in the Pacific Classic this coming weekend but he wasn t entered due to coming off a persistent illness. Next Start: The Awesome Again Stakes at Santa Anita on October 1st. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Dortmund Despite Dortmund s impressive battle with California Chrome in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >2nd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) 2015 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 5) Effinex His 4th place finish in the Whitney Stakes was a bit of a disappointment. Maybe he needs to skip a start. He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has two wins in the Oaklawn Handicap and the Stephen Foster. Next Start: Unknown but I am guessing the Jockey Club Gold Cup race at Belmont Park on October 8th. Career: 25 Starts 9-2-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 6th >1st >4th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 6) Exaggerator* The Slopmeister. With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2024. Next Start: The Travers Stakes at Saratoga on August 27th. Then onto the Breeders Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had. Career: 13 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >11th >1st Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 7) Beholder Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was a surprise since she hadn t lost a race in over 2 years. Her time and Beyer Speed Figure in this year s Clement L. Hirsh was higher than last year s. However, one big difference, she didn t have to battle for the win in the 2015 edition where she won by 7 lengths. I think she has slipped a bit off of her 2015 form where she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. But she has been training well at Del Mar the past two weeks, so maybe she will bounce back into form. Next Start: She will defend her title in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >2nd Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 8) Win the Space A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably an expected result. However, I thought he ran more competitively in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. Perhaps he prefers 10 furlongs or the Santa Anita track surface? Or Gary Stevens as his rider? We will see soon. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: George Papaprodromou Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 9) Nyquist It should be plain as day after the Haskell Invitational that Nyquist just doesn t like wet, sloppy tracks. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2024 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Next Start: The most recent news is that Nyquist will stay at San Luis Rey Downs through the entire month of August and is being pointed towards the Pennsylvania Derby at PARX on September 24th. Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 10) Hoppertunity He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 11) Bradester* With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2024. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. Next Start: Unknown. Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 12) Hard Aces Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap (shown below) a couple of weekends ago. He finished 6th in last year s Breeders Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has hit the board potential if the race sets up well for his closing style. Next Start: The Pacific Classic at Del Mar on August 20th. Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >1st Sire: Hard Spun Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Mario Pino Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Note: Horses who have qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic have an asterisk next to their name. Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: August 20th Pacific Classic Del Mar 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 TVG August 27th Travers Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 NBC September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN September 24th Pennsylvania Derby PARX 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 TVG October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC * 3 year olds only Michael Whitney Stakes Preview Another Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic race. Plus Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings Posted on August 3 by Michael J. Cox challenge August 3rd 2024 Updated August 4th 2024 Below are the post-positions for the upcoming Whitney Stakes (aka Whitney Handicap) this Saturday evening at Saratoga. This is another Win and You re In race for the Breeders Cup Classic and it will be televised on Fox Sports 2. Frosted will be the race favorite at 4/5 odds. He is well-deserving race favorite after coming off a track record and 123 Beyer Speed Figure performance in the Met Mile back in June. Effinex will be the next betting favorite at 7/2 odds. However, note that Effinex did not run very well at Saratoga at this same distance (1 1/8th mile) last year in the Woodward Stakes where he finished 4th. The Todd Pletcher-trained Comfort is probably the next best bet to hit the board. He has won both of his starts in 2024 at 8 1/2 furlongs (1 1/16th mile) and produced a great time of 1:40.76 and 105 Beyer Speed Figure in his last start in the State Dinner Stakes (shown below). Noble Bird produced a 110 Beyer Speed Figure back in May in the 1 3/16th mile Pimlico Special but finished a disappointing 6th place in his next start the Met Mile. He also had a poor performance in last year s Whitney Handicap where he finished in last place. Upstart has been hit or miss this year in 3 starts: 1st in the Razorback Handicap, 5th in the Oaklawn Handicap and 3rd in the Met Mile. El Kabeir has been less stellar this year with two 7th place finishes and a 4th place finish in his last start the Stephen Foster Handicap. The Whitney Stakes 1 1/8th Mile Saturday August 6th Race #10 at Saratoga Post-Time: 5:18 PM CST. Televised by Fox Sports 2 Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. El Kabeir (117) Santana/Terranova 20/1 2. Comfort (117) Velazquez/Pletcher 8/1 3. Upstart (119) Ortiz/Violette 10/1 4. Frosted (124) Rosario/McLaughlin 3/5 5. Noble Bird (124) Leparoux/Casse 10/1 6. Effinex (124) Smith/Jerkens 7/2 My Prediction: I think Frosted can be beaten, he has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at Saratoga in last year s Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes respectively. Then he had a subpar 5th place finish earlier in the year at Meydan in the Dubai World Cup. Effinex has proven that he can rise up to the occasion and win some big races. But I just can t bet against Frosted after that Met Mile performance. I really like Effinex, I just don t think 1 1/8th mile and the Saratoga track is his best combination. So here is my predicted order of finish: 1st-Frosted, 2nd-Comfort, 3rd-Effinex, 4th-Upstart, 5th-Noble Bird and 6th-El Kabeir. Updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders Overall, I don t think the 2024 Kentucky Derby class has any serious threats yet to pull off a win in The Classic as a 3 year-old like American Pharoah did last year and Bayern the year before. An interesting stat: 3 year-olds have won the Breeders Cup Classic 9 times in 32 runnings of the race. That is only 28%. I think an older horse will win it this year. But we have a few months more to go and these young horses can make huge strides as the year goes on. Exaggerator appears to the best of this 2024 3 year-old class. 1) California Chrome He s undefeated in four starts in 2024. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. But his next start appears to be another showdown at Del Mar on August 20th in the Pacific Classic vs Dortmund. Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic 2) Frosted He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who liked distance and never a miler prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start will be in this Satuerday s Whitney Stakes at Saratoga on August 6th. Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: William Buick Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 3) Melatonin* The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. His next start is undetermined since he has battled a persistent illness but it appears that he is being targeted for the Awesome Again Stakes on October 1st. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Effinex He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). His next start will be this Saturday s Whitney Stakes August 6th. Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >6th >1st Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 5) Dortmund Despite Dortmund s impressive battle with the #1 ranked horse in the world in the San Diego Handicap, he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. His next start may be a rematch vs California Chrome in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 20th. Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >2nd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) 2015 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 6) Exaggerator* The Slopmeister! With wins in the Santa Anita Derby, the Preakness Stakes and the Haskell Invitational (shown below), Exaggerator has probably moved ahead of Nyquist as the best 3-year-0ld colt in 2024. His future plans appear to be the Travers Stakes on August 27th and then onto the Breeders Cup Classic on November 5th with roughly the same layoff as American Pharoah had. I think this horse s future is very bright and would love to see him entered into a high profile turf race. Career: 13 Starts 6-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 3 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >11th >1st Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 7) Beholder Her lost to Stellar Wind in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes was surprising as she hadn t lost a race since June 2014. Maybe she has slipped a bit from her 2015 form? Her time and Beyer Speed Figure this year was higher in the Clement L. Hirsch than last year. Then she had the stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below) that put her #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Her entry into this year s TVG Pacific Classic is now questionable according to recent reports. Career: 23 Starts 17-4-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >2nd Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 8) Win the Space A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. No word yet on where his next start will come but I imagine it will be at Santa Anita or Del Mar. Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: George Papaprodromou Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 9) Nyquist It should be plain as day after the Haskell Invitational that Nyquist just doesn t like wet, sloppy tracks. The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner needs a big win down the road if he wants to win the 2024 Eclipse 3 Year Old Male of the Year award. Career: 10 Starts 8-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 10) Hoppertunity He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. He was pegged to start in either the San Diego or Cougar II Handicap races at Del Mar a few weekends ago but spiked a fever and was scratched from both races. Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 11) Bradester* With his most recent win in the Monmouth Cup, Bradester now has won three races in three starts in 2024. Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with his win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He competed in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 6 of his career 10 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 24 Starts 10-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 12) Hard Aces Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap (shown below) a couple of weekends ago. He finished 6th in last year s Breeders Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has hit the board potential if the race sets up well for his closing style. Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >1st Sire: Hard Spun Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Mario Pino Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: August 6th Whitney Handicap Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 Fox Sports 2 August 20th Pacific Classic Del Mar 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 TVG August 27th Travers Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 NBC September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC * 3 year olds only Michael A July Spectacular! Triple Crown Rematch Weekend. Plus updated Breeders Cup Classic Contender Rankings Posted on July 27 by Michael J. Cox July 27th 2024 Updated July 30th 2024 1 PM CST Usually July is a slow, dull month for the sport horse racing and it has been evident in previous year s blog statistics. However, this year July has been one of the most exciting summer months for the sport in recent memory. And it is about to go out like a huge Fourth of July fireworks finale this weekend. Last weekend, the California Chrome vs Dortmund battle in the San Diego Handicap proved to be one of the best horse races of the year thus far. With California Chrome s win in the San Diego Handicap, he received the top Beyer Speed Figure (111) of the year for dirt races longer than one mile. And Dortmund received a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, the best of his career and tied for 2nd best this year for dirt races longer than one mile. Then Carina Mia gave the sensational filly Songbird her best battle to date in the Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga (shown below). She received her career best Beyer Speed Figure (101) with the win. Songbird has now won nine straight races and drawing comparisons to the Queen of Thoroughbreds Zenyatta. Triple Crown Rematches This weekend, we will have two big rematches from this year s Triple Crown races. An exciting Belmont Stakes rematch of Creator and Destin in the Jim Dandy Stakes on Saturday July 30th. Remember that Creator edged Destin at the wire by a nose. Mohaymen will also be entered so the Jim Dandy Stakes will live up to its name. Jim Dandy Stakes 1 1/8th Mile Race #10 at Saratoga Post-Time: Saturday July 30th 5:18 PM CST Fox Sports 2 Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. Creator (123) I. Ortiz/Asmussen 3-1 2. Laoban (117) J.Ortiz/Guillot 20-1 3. Mohaymen (121) Alvarado/McLaughlin 9-5 4. Destin (121) Castellano/Pletcher 2-1 5. Governor Malibu (117) Rosario/Clement 9-2 6. Race Me Home (117) Saez/Romans 15-1 Handicapping Advice: Saratoga s track surface seems to adversely affect some horses and very few of the horses in this field have much experience on it. Mohaymen hasn t raced since the Kentucky Derby in early May, so knows how he will respond after a lengthy layoff. Creator and Race Me Home are both closers who depend on fast opening fractions that I am not sure either will get. In a small field of six horses, I suspect that they will be closer to the lead pack. Laoban has yet to win a race in 7 starts. Really, any of the other five horses in the field could win this race. With no clear favorite, the exotic bets should pay out nice. I am leaning towards Destin as the race winner. And I have a sneaky feeling that Dale Romans Race Me Home will surprise and be in the mix at the end. Then how about a Nyquist vs Exaggerator rematch in the Haskell Invitational on Sunday? Throw in Gun Runner into the mix and a 60% chance of rain and you ve got potential for more great drama. The winner gets an automatic entry into the Breeders Cup Classic. Haskell Invitational 1 1/8th Mile Race #12 at Monmouth Park Post-Time: Sunday July 31st 4:47 PM CST NBC Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer/Odds 1. Nyquist (122) I. Ortiz/ONeill 6-5 2. Sunny Ridge (118) Juarez/Servis 20-1 3. Awesome Slew (118) Lopez/Plesa 15-1 4. Gun Runner (118) Geroux/Asmussen 4-1 5. American Freedom (118) Bejarano/Baffert 3-1 6. Exaggerator (122) Desormeaux/Desormeaux 5-2 Handicapping Advice: I think Nyquist wins this one so long as he gets a dry track. If it rains and the track is sloppy, then I like Exaggerator. Gun Runner should be in the mix in either scenario and remember how well he battled Nyquist through 9 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby. American Freedom has won his last two starts in the Sir Barton Stakes and the Iowa Derby. Sunny Ridge hasn t raced since his 4th place finish in the Withers Stakes back in March. Awesome Slew is probably overmatched in this field. And for good measure, there will two other horses racing this weekend that are in my Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic contender rankings: Beholder in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on Saturday (Post-Time 7:33 PM CST) and Bradester in the Monmouth Cup on Sunday (Post-Time 2:29 PM CST). So four horses in my Top 12 Breeders Cup Contender rankings (listed below) will be in action. As far as being major contenders in this year s Breeders Cup Classic, the 3 year-old class of 2024 really needs crank it up a notch to catch up with the older horses. Their times and Beyer Speed Figures are lagging behind. Perhaps this is the weekend we see this crop make huge gains. Updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders: 1) California Chrome He s undefeated in four starts in 2024. With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time North American leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. In the San Diego Handicap, California Chrome displayed a fight that we have never seen before since he has usually won with ease. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. But his next start appears to be another showdown at Del Mar on August 20th in the Pacific Classic vs Beholder and Dortmund. Career: 22 Starts 13-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic 2) Frosted He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who like distance and never a miler prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start appears to be in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on August 6th. Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: William Buick Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 3) Melatonin* The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. His next start will likely be in the Pacific Classic on August 20th but that has not been confirmed. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Beholder After a stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below), she was #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Beholder was entered in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic but was unfortunately scratched due to a fever. After a long layoff, she bounced back with an impressive win in the Adoration Stakes. But her last effort, although a win in the Vanity Stakes, may indicate that she has slipped a bit off her 2015 form because she seemed to labor to produce a winning of 1:35.97 in this one mile race. Her next start will come in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar this Saturday July 31st. Career: 22 Starts 17-3-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 5) Effinex He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). His next start appears to be in the Whitney Handicap August 6th. Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >6th >1st Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 6) Dortmund Despite Dortmund s impressive battle with the #1 ranked horse in the world in the San Diego Handicap, I put him 6th in my rankings because he still needs to prove himself beyond 9 furlongs. He has the pedigree for distance. His sire Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby. However, Dortmund has only raced once at the Classic distance of a miler and a quarter. That came in the 2015 Kentucky Derby where he finished 3rd behind American Pharoah and Firing Line. His next start may be a rematch vs California Chrome in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar August 20th. Career: 11 Starts 8-1-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-0-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >2nd Sire: Big Brown Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.50 (calculated) 2015 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2015 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 110 2024 San Diego Handicap 7) Nyquist The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner missed the Belmont Stakes due to spiking a fever shortly after the Preakness Stakes. He will be an entry in the Haskell Invitational on July 31st. Career: 9 Starts 8-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 8) Exaggerator His disappointing 11th place finish in the Belmont Stakes was a head-scratcher. Trainer Keith Desormeaux believes that Exaggerator didn t take well to the sandy Belmont surface. His future plans originally was to start in the Jim Dandy Stakes on July 30th as a prep race for the Travers Stakes on August 27th. But he supposedly was training well and the Desormeaux brothers were hinting at skipping the Jim Dandy. But surprise, surprise, he will be entered in the Haskell Invitational vs Nyquist on July 31st. Career: 12 Starts 5-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >1st >11th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 9) Win the Space A third place finish behind California Chrome and Dortmund in the San Diego Handicap was probably par for the course but I thought he ran a better in the Gold Cup race at Santa Anita. Career: 12 Starts 3-1-3-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >3rd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: George Papaprodromou Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 10) Hoppertunity He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. He was pegged to start in either the San Diego or Cougar II Handicap races at Del Mar this past weekend but spiked a fever and was scratched from both races. Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 11) Hard Aces Still competitive as a 6 year-old, he won the Cougar II Handicap this past Sunday (shown below). He finished 6th in last year s Breeders Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has hit the board potential if the race sets up well for his closing style. Career: 33 Starts 9-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 2nd >3rd >1st Sire: Hard Spun Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Mario Pino Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 12) Bradester* Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester has qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is 2-for-2 in 2024. He competed in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 5 of his career 9 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 23 Starts 9-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 9th >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A (Estimate from Stephen Foster projected out: 2:01.53) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: July 30th Jim Dandy Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 July 31st Haskell Invitational* Monmouth Park 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC August 6th Whitney Handicap Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 August 20th Pacific Classic Del Mar 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 August 27th Travers Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 NBC September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC * 3 year olds only Michael California Chrome and Dortmund set to clash in the upcoming San Diego Handicap. Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Rankings Posted on July 16 by Michael J. Cox July 17th 2024 Updated July 21st 2024 California Chrome is at the Del Mar Fairgrounds working out in preparation for the San Diego Handicap this coming Saturday July 23rd. His most recent workout is shown below. Although the San Diego Handicap only carries a $200,000 purse, California Chrome will receive some stiff competition. Below is the starting field, post-positions and the mornign line odds. San Diego Handicap 1 1/16th Mile Race #9 at Del Mar Post-Time: Saturday July 23rd 8:10 PM CST Post Position/Horse/Weight/Jockey/Trainer 1. Hard Aces (118) Gonzalez/Sadler 8-1 2. Dortmund (121) Stevens/Baffert 2-1 3. Soi Phet (115) Desormeaux/Powell 12-1 4. Crittenden (114) Garcia/Harty 20-1 5. Follow Me Crev (116) Quinonez/Cerin 20-1 6. California Chrome (126) Espinoza/Sherman 4-5 7. Win the Space (116) Smith/Papaprodromou 8-1 Chrome s stiffest competition may come from Dortmund who has won 8 out of 10 career starts and was originally in my 2024 Breeders Cup Classic watch list. However, Dortmund hasn t raced since November 28th of last year. He may be a bit rusty coming off a long layoff but will have Gary Stevens as his jockey instead of Martin Garcia. I will post a blog by Friday analyzing the race. Below is my updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic contender rankings. Updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders: 1) California Chrome With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. He is expected to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup next January. He is training extremely well and is set to return to racing in the San Diego Handicap. Career: 21 Starts 12-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic 2) Frosted He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who like distance and never a miler prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start appears to be in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on August 6th. Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: William Buick Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 3) Melatonin* The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Beholder After a stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below), she was #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Beholder was entered in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic but was unfortunately scratched due to a fever. After a long layoff, she bounced back with an impressive win in the Adoration Stakes. But her last effort, although a win in the Vanity Stakes, may indicate that she has slipped a bit off her 2015 form because she seemed to labor to produce a winning of 1:35.97 in this one mile race. Her next start will come in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on July 31st. Career: 22 Starts 17-3-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 5) Effinex He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap, a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster but bounced back with a big win in the Suburban Handicap (shown below). Career: 24 Starts 9-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 7 Starts 3-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >6th >1st Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.04 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 6) Nyquist The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner missed the Belmont Stakes due to spiking a fever shortly after the Preakness Stakes. He is doing fine, back in training and probably will be an entry in the Haskell Invitational on July 31st. Career: 9 Starts 8-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 7) Exaggerator His disappointing 11th place finish in the Belmont Stakes was a head-scratcher. Trainer Keith Desormeaux believes that Exaggerator didn t take well to the sandy Belmont surface. His future plans are the Jim Dandy Stakes on July 30th as a prep race for the Travers Stakes on August 27th. But since he excels on a sloppy, off-track, I would love to see him entered in a turf race because usually these type of horses make great turf runners. And his closer style would fit well there too. Career: 12 Starts 5-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >1st >11th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Fastest 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 8) Win the Space He has bounced between dirt and turf and finally has found a home on dirt. His 2nd place Gold Cup performance proved that this 4 year-old colt was a diamond in the rough and is extremely talented. He produced a 2 minute mile and a quarter (very uncommon) and did so in 90 degree heat. In his start previous to the Gold Cup, he produced a lightning quick 8 1/2 furlong (1 1/16th mile) time of 1:41.55 as a closer. But in the Gold Cup race, Gary Stevens pressed him up on the pace and it paid off. So he proved that he is versatile in running style as well as fast. Career: 11 Starts 3-1-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >1st >2nd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: George Papaprodromou Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 9) Hoppertunity He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 10) Mubtaahij His 2nd place finish in the Dubai World Cup was a surprise performance for this enigmatic 4 year old colt who has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race on US soil. He was transferred to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin for his US campaign in April. He opened up his US racing campaign in 2024 with a 3rd place finish in the Suburban Handicap. Career: 13 Starts 4-2-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-2-0 Last 3 starts: 4th >2nd >3rd Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Christophe Soumillon Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.28 (calculated) 2024 Suburban Handicap Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Suburban Handicap Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 101 2024 Suburban Handicap 11) Bradester* Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester has qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is 2-for-2 in 2024. He competed in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 5 of his career 9 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 23 Starts 9-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 9th >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A (Estimate from Stephen Foster projected out: 2:01.53) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes 12) Hard Aces Still competitive as a 6 year-old. He finished 6th in last year s Breeders Cup Classic after qualifying with a win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He is a closer and performs best when the opening fractions are fast. And he is running well this year at Santa Anita producing a 2nd place finish in both the Santa Anita Handicap and California Stakes to go with his most recent 3rd place finish in the Gold Cup race. The 105 Beyer he received in the Gold Cup was a career best. He will throw a clunker in along the way and is not an early Vegas favorite to win The Classic but he has hit the board potential if the race sets up well for his closing style. Career: 32 Starts 8-6-5-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 1-1-1-1 Last 3 starts: 7th >2nd >3rd Sire: Hard Spun Trainer: John Sadler Jockey: Mario Pino Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.15 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 105 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Dropping out of my Top 12 rankings: Songbird Songbird drops out of my rankings, not due to performance reasons, but due to the fact that her ownership no plans to race her against the boys this year. Right now, she is being pointed towards the Breeders Cup Distaff this fall. She is expected to be an entry in the 1 1/4 mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on August 20th. A great performance in that race may change their minds but it appears to be highly unlikely. The good news, they do plan on her racing next year. And if she performs well, they will probably take a shot at the boys somewhere along the way. Her next start will come in the 1 1/8th mile Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on Sunday July 24th. Career: 8 Starts 8-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 4 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Medaglia d Oro Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 2015 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: July 23rd San Diego Handicap Del Mar 1 1/16th Mile Purse: $200,000 July 30th Jim Dandy Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 July 31st Haskell Invitational* Monmouth Park 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC August 6th Whitney Handicap Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 August 20th Pacific Classic Del Mar 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 August 27th Travers Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 NBC September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC * 3 year olds only Michael Melatonin Wins The Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Updated 2024 Breeders Cup Classic Standings Posted on June 26 by Michael J. Cox MelatoninBigCap June 26th 2024 Back in March when I attended the Santa Anita Handicap, there was some grumbling how this year s Big Cap had a dearth of talent since many of the top horses had traveled to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup. Then the 16-1 longshot Melatonin won the prestigious race and a number of bystanders groaned Melatonin? Let s just say, the lines for returning winning tickets that afternoon was rather short. But nobody is saying Melatonin? today or feeling shorted by their Big Cap attendance because you can make a strong case that Melatonin is top horse in the world on dirt at the Classic distance of a a mile and a quarter. Why? First, Melatonin s winning Gold Cup time of 1:59.79 (shown below) is a time that California Chrome has never eclipsed at that distance. The only active horse who has produced a better time through 1 1/4 mile is Beholder who whose winning time in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar last August was 1:59.77. And Melatonin didn t have the mild, near perfect San Diego weather to run in. He ran in extreme 90 degree heat yesterday at Santa Anita Park. Secondly, Melatonin has consistently produced three 100+ Beyer Speed figures in a row: 107 in the Santa Anita Handicap, 104 in the Oaklawn Handicap and a 109 for his Gold Cup winning performance. That is a 106.67 average and only two other horses thus far this year (Noble Bird 110, Mexikoma 107) have produced a 107 or better Beyer in races more than a mile. So this explains why he rocketed up from 9th to 3rd in my Breeders Cup Classic Rankings below. Here are my updated Top 12 Breeders Cup Classic Contenders: 1) California Chrome The #1 ranked race racehorse on dirt in the world by Longines (source). With his Dubai World Cup win in March, he became the all-time leader in race earnings with $12.5 million dollars. He returned to California to train under Art Sherman and is expected to be an entry in the Breeders Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup. He is training extremely well and is expected to be an entry in the San Diego Handicap at Del Mar on July 23rd. Career: 21 Starts 12-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 5 Starts 3-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Lucky Pulpit Trainer: Art Sherman Jockey: Victor Espinosa (2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.93 (calculated) 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Beyer Speed Figure: 113 2014 Breeders Cup Classic 2) Frosted He has set two track records thus far as a 4 year old. The first came at Meydan in the 1900 meter Al Maktoum Challenge in February. His most recent came in the 124th running of the Metropolitan Handicap with a time of 1:32.73 that resulted in the highest Beyer Speed Figure (123) of his career and the highest of any thoroughbred thus far in 2024. So now the question becomes, should he be entered in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile or The Classic? He was always viewed as a horse who like distance and never a miler prior to his stunning performance in the Met Mile. His next start appears to be in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga on August 6th. Career: 16 Starts 5-6-1-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-0-1-1 Last 3 starts: 1st >5th >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: William Buick Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.05 (calculated) 2015 Travers Stakes Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2014 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 123 2024 Metropolitan Handicap 3) Melatonin* The surprise winner of the 2024 Santa Anita Handicap. He proved his Big Cap performance was no fluke by finishing 2nd behind Effinex in the Oaklawn Handicap and completing the Big Cap-Gold Cup Double. His win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita assures him a spot in this year s Breeders Cup Classic. He is trained by David Hofmans who won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1996 with Alphabet Soup. Career: 13 Starts 5-3-3-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 2 Starts 2-0-0-0 (107.5 average Beyer) Last 3 starts: 1st >2nd >1st Sire: Kodiak Kowboy Trainer: David Hofmans (1996 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Joe Talamo Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.79 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 4) Nyquist The 2024 Kentucky Derby winner missed the Belmont Stakes due to spiking a fever shortly after the Preakness Stakes. He is doing fine and probably will be a candidate for the Haskell Invitational on July 31st. Career: 9 Starts 8-0-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 5 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >3rd Sire: Uncle Mo Trainer: Doug O Neill Jockey: Mario Gutierrez Best 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.31 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Kentucky Derby 5) Songbird Undefeated in 8 career starts. Songbird missed the Kentucky Oaks due to a fever but proved in the Summertime Oaks that she is back and better than ever. She produced career her best time of 1:42.63 in a 1 1/16th mile race and traveled through the mile in 1:35.71. These times indicate to me that Songbird is a tenth or two faster than Beholder right now on the same Santa Anita track. And note that she is coasting home in her victories, so she has plenty more left in the tank. As a 2 year-old, she proved to be faster in the Breeders Cup World Championships than Nyquist or Exaggerator on the same track, same 1 1/16th mile distance, on the same day. She has #1 in the world potential. Her next start will come in the 1 1/8th mile Coaching Club American Oaks at Saratoga on Sunday July 24th. It appears her schedule after this will be the 1 1/4 mile Alabama Stakes at Saratoga on August 20th and the 1 1/16th mile Cotillion Stakes at PARX on September 17th. An entry in the Breeders Cup Distaff entry seems more likely this year than The Classic. Career: 8 Starts 8-0-0-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 4 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Medaglia d Oro Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 2015 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies 6) Beholder After a stunning performance in the 2015 TVG Pacific Classic (shown below), she was #1 in many Breeders Cup Classic rankings last year. Beholder was entered in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic but was unfortunately scratched due to a fever. After a long layoff, she bounced back with an impressive win in the Adoration Stakes. But her last effort, although a win in the Vanity Stakes, may indicate that she has slipped a bit off her 2015 form because she seemed to labor to produce a winning of 1:35.97 in this one mile race. Her next start will come in the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar on July 31st. Career: 22 Starts 17-3-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 10 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 1-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >1st >1st Sire: Henny Hughes Trainer: Richard Mandella (2003 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 1:59.77 2015 Pacific Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 114 2015 Pacific Classic Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 114 2015 Pacific Classic 7) Exaggerator His disappointing 11th place finish in the Belmont Stakes was a head-scratcher. Trainer Keith Desormeaux believes that Exaggerator didn t take well to the sandy Belmont surface. His future plans are the Jim Dandy Stakes on July 30th as a prep race for the Travers Stakes on August 27th. But since he excels on a sloppy, off-track, I would love to see him entered in a turf race because usually these type of horses make great turf runners. And his closer style would fit well there too. Career: 12 Starts 5-3-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >1st >11th Sire: Curlin (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Trainer: Keith Desormeaux Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Best 1 1/4th Mile Time: 2:01.51 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 101 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 103 2024 Santa Anita Derby 8) Effinex He finished 2nd to American Pharoah in the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. For 2024, he has a 3rd place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, a win in the Oaklawn Handicap (shown below) and a head-scratching 6th place finish in the Stephen Foster Handicap. Reviewing his disappointing run in the Stephen Foster, Effinex got off to a poor start and had a bad trip being forced wide that mostly due to his poor start. He is a temperamental horse who has produced a few clunkers but is able to bounce back. He had Gary Stevens as his jockey in the Stephen Foster but Mike Smith seems to have more magic on him. Career: 23 Starts 8-2-4-3 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 6 Starts 2-1-2-1 Last 3 starts: 3rd >1st >6th Sire: Mineshaft Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens Jockey: Mike Smith (1997, 2009, 2011 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:01.11 (calculated) 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Career Best Beyer Speed: 112 2015 Breeders Cup Classic 9) Win the Space He has bounced between dirt and turf and finally has found a home on dirt. His 2nd place Gold Cup performance proved that this 4 year-old colt was a diamond in the rough and is extremely talented. He produced a 2 minute mile and a quarter (very uncommon) and did so in 90 degree heat. In his start previous to the Gold Cup, he produced a lightning quick 8 1/2 furlong (1 1/16th mile) time of 1:41.55 as a closer. But in the Gold Cup race, Gary Stevens pressed him up on the pace and it paid off. So he proved that he is versatile in running style as well as fast. No word as to where his next start will be. Career: 11 Starts 3-1-2-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Starts 0-1-0-0 Last 3 starts: 2nd >1st >2nd Sire: Pulpit Trainer: George Papaprodromou Jockey: Gary Stevens (2013 Breeders Cup Classic Winner) Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.03 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 107 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita 10) Mubtaahij His 2nd place finish in the Dubai World Cup was a surprise performance for this enigmatic 4 year old colt who has yet to win a Grade 1 stakes race on US soil. He was transferred to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin for his US campaign in April. He has been working out at Belmont Park and is expected to be entered in the Suburban Handicap on July 9th. He ll be the race favorite in that field. Career: 12 Starts 4-2-0-2 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 3 Starts 0-1-1-0 Last 3 starts: 5th >4th >2nd Sire: Dubawi Trainer: Kiaran McLaughlin (2006 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Christophe Soumillon Best 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03:15* (estimated 1 1/4 mile time from 2024 Dubai World Cup) Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: N/A Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: N/A 11) Hoppertunity He finished 4th in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. Bob Baffert admitted before the race that he wasn t sure that he had him completely ready. Previous to this start, he finished 3rd (and just a neck from 2nd) in the Dubai World Cup. He is extremely consistent and probably would finish in the top 4 in any race no matter the talent in the field because he has never finished below 4th place in a graded stakes race. No word on when or where his next start will be. Career: 20 Starts 5-6-4-4 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 4 Starts 0-1-1-2 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >4th Sire: Any Given Saturday Trainer: Bob Baffert (2014 & 2015 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Flavien Prat Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:00.16 (calculated) 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Best Beyer in 1 1/4 Mile Race: 104 2024 Gold Cup at Santa Anita Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 108 2024 San Antonio Stakes 12) Bradester* Although he has never raced beyond 1 1/8th mile, Bradester has qualified for the Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the Stephen Foster Handicap. He is 2-for-2 in 2024. He competed in the 2015 Breeders Cup Dirt Mile and had a disappointing 9th place finish. 5 of his career 9 wins have come at the 1 1/16th mile distance. So one wonders if he is better suited to for the 1 1/8th mile Pegasus World Cup than the Breeders Cup Classic. Career: 23 Starts 9-6-2-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 1 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 0 Starts 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 9th >1st >1st Sire: Lion Heart Trainer: Eddie Kenneally Jockey: Joe Bravo Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: N/A (Estimate from Stephen Foster projected out: 2:01.53) Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 109 2015 Salvator Mile Stakes Dropping out of my Top 12 rankings: Creator He proved that his Arkansas Derby win wasn t a fluke with a surprise win in the Belmont Stakes. His next start appears to be in the Travers Stakes on August 27th. Career: 10 Starts 3-4-1-0 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 2 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-0-0-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >13th >1st Sire: Tapit Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Irad Ortiz Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:03.58 (calculated) 2024 Belmont Stakes Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 2024 Belmont Stakes Keep an eye on . Gun Runner He came within 0.08 seconds from setting a track record at Churchill Downs this past Saturday in the Matt Winn Stakes (shown below). His next start will come in the Travers Stakes on August 27th. This 1 1/8th mile distance seems to fit his running style the best. Gun Runner was 2nd and about a length or so from Nyquist at the 1 1/8th pole in the Kentucky Derby. He may be a better Pegasus World Cup contender Career: 7 Starts 5-0-1-1 Grade 1 Stakes Wins: 0 Career in 1 1/4 Mile Races: 1 Start 0-0-1-0 Last 3 starts: 1st >3rd >1st Sire: Candy Ride Trainer: Steve Asmussen (2007 Breeders Cup Classic Winning Trainer) Jockey: Florent Geroux Fastest 1 1/4 Mile Time: 2:02.03 (calculated) 2024 Kentucky Derby Career Best Beyer Speed Figure: 99 2024 Matt Winn Stakes Below are the key upcoming races with Win and You re In Breeders Cup Classic races in bold font: July 9th Suburban Handicap# Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $500,000 NBC July 23rd San Diego Handicap Del Mar 1 1/16th Mile Purse: $200,000 July 30th Jim Dandy Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 July 31st Haskell Invitational* Monmouth Park 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC August 6th Whitney Handicap Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 August 20th Pacific Classic Del Mar 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 August 27th Travers Stakes* Saratoga 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,250,000 NBC September 3rd Woodward Stakes Saratoga 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $600,000 NBCSN October 1st Awesome Again Stakes Santa Anita 1 1/8 Mile Purse: $300,000 NBCSN October 8th Jockey Gold Cup Belmont Park 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $1,000,000 NBC ***** November 5th- Breeders Cup Classic Santa Anita 1 1/4 Mile Purse: $6,000,000 NBC * 3 year olds only #- 4 year olds and up